Traders are expecting to see a very lively session on Thursday this week with the key US employment data due out a day early due to the big US Independence Day holiday on Friday. The dollar remains trading near annual highs and another strong print from the headline Non-Farm Payroll number should see it push higher to record more record levels for the year. Last month’s stronger than expected result was a definite factor in the hawkish change in Fed guidance at the last meeting and another strong number indicating a resilient jobs market should reinforce that view and push some in the market to expect not one but two rate hikes from the Fed in the second half of the year.
The market is expecting the headline Non-Farm Employment Change data to show an increase of 114k new jobs in the last month – down from last month’s surprise 172k print – while the Average Hourly Earnings are expected to indicate a 0.3% month-on-month increase while the Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.3%.
The EURUSD is again nicely placed from a technical perspective for traders to take advantage of key levels on the data release. It is now trading around the 1.1400 level just 75 pips above the annual low which hit last week, and a stronger print should see that level challenged swiftly with a break there then targeting a move to 1.1200. A weaker number would see the single currency rise with initial resistance now sitting just below the 1.1550 area.
Resistance 2: 1.1655 – 200 Day Moving Average and Trendline Resistance
Resistance 1: 1.1541 – Short Term Trendline Resistance
Support 1: 1.1347 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 1.1324 – 2026 Low
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