IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |20 February 2026
What happened in the U.S. session?
initial jobless claims dropping to 206k (better than the expected 225k), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rising to 16.3 (above forecasts of 8.5), and the U.S. trade deficit widening sharply to $70.3 billion in December. FOMC minutes from the prior meeting revealed officials’ concerns over sticky inflation, with some open to rate hikes, tempering rate-cut expectations. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions drove oil prices higher, reaching six-month highs around $71 for Brent.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
With Asian markets partially resuming amid Lunar New Year thinness, traders eye Japan’s inflation/PMIs and China’s LPR for policy clues, alongside pivotal US PCE/GDP data that could sway USD and yields; US-Iran escalation keeps oil elevated and gold supported, urging caution on commodities and risk assets in a liquidity-strapped open.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Advance GDP q/q (1:30 pm GMT)
Core PCE Price Index m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
Advance GDP Price Index q/q (1:30 pm GMT)
Flash Manufacturing PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
Flash Services PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)
New Home Sales (Nov Data)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The US Dollar steadied and edged higher into late week, with the DXY climbing above 97.5 on February 18 following hawkish FOMC minutes that downplayed imminent rate cuts and flagged potential hikes amid sticky inflation at 2.4% in January, bolstered by upbeat economic data on housing starts, durable goods, and industrial output.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its January 27–28, 2026, meeting, marking the second consecutive pause after three 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025.
- The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market remaining soft as the unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in December 2025 amid modest job gains of 50,000.
- Officials note balanced risks to growth and employment alongside sticky inflation, with CPI at 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025 and core PCE at 2.8% due to tariffs and housing pressures; headline PCE at 2.6%.
- Economic activity expanded robustly at 4.4% annualized in Q3 2025, with Q4 estimates around 5% per Atlanta Fed GDPNow, supported by consumer spending despite prior trade tensions and shutdown effects.
- December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5% (down from prior 2.6%), with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026; January updates may reflect resilient Q4 growth.
- The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a stable but soft labor market and inflation above target, while holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%; dissents likely persist amid divisions on the pace of easing.
- The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening post-December 1, 2025, conclusion of the prior program, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to maintain ample reserves.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 March, 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Advance GDP q/q (1:30 pm GMT
Core PCE Price Index m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
Advance GDP Price Index q/q (1:30 pm GMT)
Flash Manufacturing PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
Flash Services PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)
New Home Sales (Nov Data)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold prices hovered around the $5,000 per ounce, with spot gold trading between $4,988 and $5,017, showing modest gains amid ongoing consolidation. As markets anticipate Friday, February 20, forecasts suggest continued sideways movement in the $4,938–$4,996 range, supported by US-Iran tensions boosting safe-haven demand, weak US labor data raising Fed easing expectations, and steady central bank buying.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
Employment Change (12:30 am GMT)
Unemployment Rate (12:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
The AUD has strengthened 4.60% over the past month and 10.11% yearly, trading near three-year highs despite US Dollar recovery pressures. Forecasts point to 0.71 by quarter-end and 0.73 in 12 months, buoyed by tight labor markets and sticky inflation above the RBA’s 2-3% target.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
- Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and stay elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling like January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
- January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
- The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
- Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
- Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
- Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
- Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
- Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
- The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from NZD today?
The NZD exhibits subdued activity following the RBNZ’s dovish February 18 decision to maintain rates at 2.25% while delaying hikes amid cooling inflation at 3.1% YoY, with NZD/USD stabilizing around 0.597 after dipping to 0.5965; technical forecasts suggest testing 0.6010 resistance amid a broader downtrend, though no fresh catalysts have emerged today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 18 February 2026 meeting, as widely expected, maintaining a unanimous decision and emphasizing a balance between supporting the nascent economic recovery and ensuring inflation returns sustainably to the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band.
- The Committee judged that the prior cumulative easing of 325 basis points provides ongoing stimulus, warranting patience amid uneven recovery signals, while noting readiness to normalize policy gradually as inflation pressures subside and activity strengthens.
- Headline CPI inflation, recently at 3.1%, is projected to dip back within the target band in the coming quarter—supported by spare capacity, modest wage growth, and declining food/fuel prices—before reaching 2.0% by mid-2027, with two-year-ahead business expectations edging up to 2.37%.
- Domestic demand shows gradual stabilization with softer household spending and a muted housing market, partially offset by easing retail rates boosting budgets, though cautious consumption, low migration, and a weak labour market continue to cap services inflation as wage moderation takes hold.
- Financial conditions remain accommodative as lower OCR flows through to borrowing costs, aiding mortgage approvals and housing sentiment, but business credit growth stays subdued amid uneven confidence and sensitivity to the recovery’s pace.
- Recent indicators point to weak but steadying GDP momentum in an early-stage rebound from 2025 lows, with high-frequency data showing gradual broadening despite persistent headwinds from elevated costs, fragile sentiment, and subdued investment.
- External risks are now viewed as balanced rather than downside-skewed, with a supportive global backdrop offsetting prior concerns over China and US trade policy, while a lower NZ dollar aids exports and tradables inflation.
- Looking to mid-2026, the MPC adopted a data-dependent stance with forecasts signaling OCR hikes likely from late 2026 or early 2027—potentially as soon as December if activity or inflation exceeds projections—while keeping policy accommodative for now if the gradual recovery aligns with expectations.
- The next meeting is on 7 April 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese yen remains under scrutiny with USD/JPY hovering near 154.78 following a recent uptick, bolstered by robust export growth in AI chips and expectations of BoJ rate hikes as early as April amid Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal push, though tempered by soft Q4 GDP and intervention watch; monthly yen strength persists at 2.12% while forecasts point to further appreciation.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 22–23 January 2026, with markets fully expecting the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, following the December 2025 hike, as the bank assesses the impact of prior tightening while emphasizing gradual, data-dependent adjustments.
- The BOJ will continue targeting the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and signal that future rate hikes depend on the effects of recent increases on bank lending, corporate financing, and economic activity, with some policymakers eyeing a possible move as early as April.
- JGB purchase tapering proceeds on schedule, with outright purchases reduced by ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, aiming for around ¥2 trillion monthly in Q1 2027, with flexibility if market conditions worsen.
- Japan’s economy showed recovery signs after the Q3 2025 contraction, with Q4 2025 GDP growth estimated positively amid export strength, though business sentiment among manufacturers softened to a six-month low of +7 in January 2026 due to weaker overseas demand.
- Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) eased to 2.3% year-on-year in December 2025 Tokyo CPI, down from 2.8-3.0% peaks earlier, while core-core (excluding fresh food and energy) stood at 2.6%, both above the 2% target but with moderating cost pressures.
- Near-term input costs continue easing from faded import surges, but services inflation and steady wage gains with early 2026 negotiations targeting 5% hikes sustain price momentum; medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored above 2%, tilting upside risks.
- In the coming quarters, real growth may moderate below potential amid tighter conditions and yen weakness, but accommodative real rates, real wage gains, and fiscal support are poised to bolster private consumption and investment recovery.
- Medium-term, stabilizing overseas demand and tight labor markets should drive wage growth and keep core inflation gradually around or above 2%, allowing cautious rate normalization if financial conditions stay supportive.
- The next meeting is on 18 to 19 March 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from Oil today?
Brent crude has risen above $71 per barrel, while WTI trades over $65-$66, marking the largest daily gains since October amid fears of potential U.S. military action or supply disruptions from Iran. U.S. crude inventories showed a larger-than-expected drawdown, supporting prices alongside stronger domestic demand signals. Failed diplomacy, including recent Geneva talks, has injected a geopolitical risk premium, with reports of possible strikes as early as the weekend.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |20 February 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.