IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026
What happened in the U.S. session?
Markets were shaped by stickier‑than‑hoped core inflation and Fed rhetoric that ruled out imminent rate cuts, while a fragile Iran‑ceasefire backdrop kept risk‑on flows in equities but also supported a modest risk‑premium in oil and Treasuries. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed higher on tech‑led strength, whereas U.S. bond yields edged up and the dollar held firm, and energy‑complex moves were contained within a range dominated more by macro and policy cues than by fresh geopolitical escalation.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Traders heading into Monday should focus on holiday-thinned liquidity, Hong Kong’s market closure, and the week’s main macro theme: easing US–Iran tensions versus still-sticky inflation pressure. The biggest nearby drivers are the US core PCE release on Thursday and China’s PMI on Sunday, while Japan’s BoJ-related headlines and Friday industrial production also matter for regional FX and equities.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from DXY today?
The dollar strengthened to near six-week highs on Monday, as investors remain cautious about the stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, which keep oil prices elevated and inflation risks high. April’s inflation jump to 3.8% has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates by 25 basis points in December, with traders now pricing in roughly a 54% probability of such a move.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its April 28–29, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.
- The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026—beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals—and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.
- Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.
- Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.
- March 2026’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%–3.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.
- The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.
- The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17 June 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from Gold today?
The gold market looks range-bound but elevated, with traders focused on whether support around the mid-4,000s can hold after a recent correction. The bigger picture is still constructive because central banks, especially in China, continue adding to reserves, but near-term sentiment is being capped by a stronger dollar and higher yields, so gold may stay volatile until a clearer macro catalyst emerges.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Australian Dollar remains supported in May 2026 by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish monetary policy stance, with the cash rate at 4.35% following a quarter-point hike earlier this year and markets pricing in further tightening as inflation stays elevated at 4.6%. The AUD has strengthened to around 0.7125 against the US dollar, trading near recent highs despite some volatility from Middle East tensions and risk-off sentiment that previously boosted the safe-haven USD.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the 5 May 2026 meeting, moving into a more restrictive stance as inflation pressures re‑accelerated and the board judged the previous 4.10% level insufficient to re‑anchor the medium‑term outlook.
- The RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% at the 5 May meeting in an 8–1 vote, flagging that the stance is now “more restrictive” and that the Council sees a low but non‑trivial chance of further hikes if inflation risks crystallise.
- Headline CPI has jumped to 4.6% year‑on‑year for the 12 months to March 2026, up from around 3.7% in February, with trimmed‑mean inflation still above 3.0% (about 3.3–3.8% depending on the series), keeping inflation clearly outside the 2–3% target band.
- Recent monthly indicators remain sticky in services, housing‑related costs, and discretionary spending, with January and March data showing only modest easing and some upside surprises in housing‑price‑related components, underpinning the case for a stronger‑than‑expected May hike.
- Global growth has been modestly revised up but remains tempered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity‑price volatility, and elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which directly feed into Australian import‑price and transport‑cost inflation.
- Markets now price the cash rate at 4.35% in June, with futures pathways suggesting a high‑probability hold at the June meeting and only a modest chance of another 25bp hike later in 2026, contingent on further upside in CPI or services‑price data.
- The RBA continues to emphasise its “data‑dependent” approach under the dual mandate, seeking to bring inflation back toward target without materially undershooting growth or employment, while acknowledging that the Middle East‑driven shock has shifted the path of inflation and policy.
- The May communication leaned hawkishly neutral to hawkish, with the decision to hike by 25bp and a run‑of‑material referencing rising inflation expectations and the risk of second‑round effects, while still leaving room for a pause in June if upcoming monthly CPI and labour‑force data show a moderating trend.
- The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from NZD today?
The New Zealand dollar is trading sideways‑to‑slightly weaker versus the US dollar around the low‑0.5800s, caught between a resilient greenback and global risk‑off flows, while domestic growth remains moderate and inflation‑related rate‑hike expectations keep the kiwi on a watch‑list rather than front‑and‑centre for strong directional moves; traders are focusing on RBNZ‑related cues and incoming CPI data for any shift in the perceived policy‑tightening path later in 2026.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
- The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
- Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
- Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
- Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
- Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
- Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
- The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese yen is trading near 158–159 against the dollar, still underpinned by last week’s suspected intervention but gradually giving back some of its earlier gains as the macro environment stays weak. Markets remain on alert for further Japanese intervention if USD/JPY retests the 160 level, yet low domestic interest rates and high oil‑import costs continue to weigh on the currency’s longer‑term outlook, confining any recovery to short‑term, event‑driven moves.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan left the short‑term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at the 27–28 April 2026 meeting, with markets broadly expecting the same level into May 2026 as the bank continues a data‑dependent, gradual‑normalisation stance.
- The BOJ targets the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, signaling that any further hikes toward 1.0% will hinge on wage‑inflation persistence, yen stability, and real‑activity data rather than a pre‑announced timetable.
- JGB tapering continues on plan, with outright purchases trimmed by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026, then reduced to ¥200 billion from April onward, aiming for roughly ¥2–3 trillion in monthly net purchases by mid‑2026, adjustable if market or yen volatility spikes.
- Japan’s economy posts moderate growth into Q1 2026, supported by resilient exports and prior stimulus, but the BOJ has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook as external headwinds and Middle‑East‑related shocks weigh on the pace.
- Core CPI (ex‑fresh food) is running in the mid‑1% range y/y, with headline inflation at about 1.5% y/y in March 2026, while core‑core measures remain above 2%, reflecting sticky services‑side and wage‑driven inflation.
- Input‑cost pressures ease from prior peaks, yet services inflation, the 2026 shunto wage deals near 5%, and expectations anchored above 2% support continued price pressures, with upside risks from further yen weakness and geopolitical spikes.
- Near‑term real GDP may run below trend due to policy tightening and external shocks (e.g., Iran‑related energy risks), but negative real rates, wage gains, and targeted fiscal/capex support should underpin a gradual rebound in consumption and investment.
- Medium‑term, overseas recovery, labor‑shortage‑driven wage growth, and productivity improvements are expected to keep core inflation near or above 2%, enabling the BOJ to gradually lift rates toward 1.0% in 2026–2027 if activity and wage‑inflation conditions remain aligned.
- The next meeting is on 15 to 16 June 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil is starting the week on a tense footing, with geopolitics still the main price driver. The biggest bullish factor is the risk of disruption in the Middle East, but that is being offset by bearish pressure from inventory builds and expectations that global oil supply may outpace demand later in the year.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.