Markets did experience slightly smoother trading conditions last week, but that was relative to the moves that we had seen previously in 2026, so it was overall fairly lively. The RBNZ held rates, while the Fed’s minutes turned a bit more hawkish, and US data remained mixed.
The week ahead looks relatively quiet on the macroeconomic calendar front, as is normal for the last week of the month. However, traders are expecting markets to remain at elevated volatility levels, with geopolitical updates still coming thick and fast.
News on Friday that President Trump’s tariffs had been ruled illegal by the Supreme Court will add further concern to the market in the coming days, especially as we have already seen Trump slap 15% tariffs on imports from all countries. In addition to trade updates, energy markets will continue to look for news out of Ukraine and the Middle East on developments there.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a quiet start to the trading week on the event calendar, with just New Zealand Retail Sales and updates from the Fed’s Christopher Waller and the ECB’s Christine Lagarde registering as notable events. However, geopolitical updates on trade are expected to dominate sentiment, and traders are expecting another lively day.
Chinese markets return to the fray after their New Year holiday, and Loan Prime Rate calls from the PBOC will feature midway through the Asian session. The focus remains on central banks in the London session, which sees the release of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings. The New York day features US data in the form of the CB Consumer Confidence data, which is released alongside the Richmond Manufacturing Index, while we also hear from the Fed’s Waller, Cook, Barkin, and Collins.
The Asian session sees the initial focus on Australian markets, with key CPI data due out early in the day. However, focus will switch back to the US midway through the day, with President Trump due to deliver his State of the Union address. There is little on the data calendar for the rest of the day, but we do hear from more Fed members in the US session, with members Barkin, Schmid, and Musalem all scheduled to speak.
Another quiet day on the calendar on Thursday, with little scheduled in the Asian session and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s testimony before the European Parliament in the London session. The New York session sees the release of the US Weekly Unemployment Claims and an update from the Fed’s Michelle Bowman, but overall, it could be a quieter day for traders.
It’s a quiet session again in the Asian time zone, but things could liven up as we progress through the sessions. The London session sees the release of the key German Prelim CPI numbers, while we have some significant tier 1 data due once New York opens. Canadian GDP and US PPI numbers are released at the same time early in the session, and both could see strong reactions in their respective markets.
The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 23 February 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.