Traders are preparing for a lively end to the trading week on Friday with key US jobs numbers due out. Markets have been dominated by geopolitical influences over the last few days, but the big US Non-Farm numbers will be the focus sharply back to fundamentals and potential updates to FOMC rate expectations. Recent data has pointed to a resilient jobs market in the US and this, combined with continued sticky inflation numbers has flipped the market view from expecting cuts from the FOMC to anticipating that the next move may be a hike.
The headline Non-Farm employment change number is expected to show an increase of 85k jobs last month with the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 4.3% and the Average Hourly Earnings increasing by 0.3%. Anything higher than these numbers could see Fed rate hike expectations increase and send the dollar higher against the majors into fresh ranges whilst a lower print, indicating cracks in the labour market should see the dollar hit across the board.
The Euro is sitting nicely from a technical perspective to have some strong moves on the release with traders seeing good opportunities to both sides if numbers come in off expectations. A stronger print should see the Euro break through short term support levels, which is it currently sitting just north of, while a much weaker number should see if jump back into recent ranges.
Resistance 2: 1.1796 – May High
Resistance 1: 1.1719 – Trendline Resistance
Support 1:1.1575 – May Low
Support 2:1.1410 – 2026 Low
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